{
  "title": "GitHub Actions dollars from AI coding agents",
  "page": "https://sengi.run/blog/github-actions-agentic-coding-revenue",
  "publisher": "Sengi",
  "kind": "modelled estimate; GitHub does not publish GitHub Actions revenue",
  "as_of": "2026-10-26",
  "last_checked": "2026-10-27",
  "currency": "USD",
  "formula": "agent_prs_per_month * ci_minutes_per_agent_pr * share_private_hosted * share_beyond_included * price_per_minute",
  "events": {
    "claude_opus_4_5_release": "2025-11-24",
    "github_price_cut": "2026-01-01",
    "copilot_code_review_uses_actions_minutes": "2026-06-01",
    "self_hosted_fee_0_002_per_min": "postponed, no date"
  },
  "inputs": {
    "agent_prs_per_month": {"low": 17000000, "mid": 22500000, "high": 29250000, "unit": "PRs/month"},
    "ci_minutes_per_agent_pr": {"low": 30, "mid": 100, "high": 147.2, "unit": "job-minutes/PR"},
    "share_private_hosted": {"low": 0.50, "mid": 0.65, "high": 0.74, "unit": "fraction"},
    "share_beyond_included": {"low": 0.50, "mid": 0.70, "high": 0.90, "unit": "fraction"},
    "share_billed": {"low": 0.25, "mid": 0.455, "high": 0.666, "unit": "fraction"},
    "price_per_minute": {"low": 0.006, "mid": 0.009, "high": 0.016, "unit": "USD/min"}
  },
  "outputs_oct_2026": {
    "agent_ci_minutes_per_month": {"low": 510000000, "mid": 2250000000, "high": 4305600000, "unit": "job-minutes/month"},
    "share_of_all_actions_minutes": {"low": 0.056, "mid": 0.247, "high": 0.472, "unit": "fraction", "all_actions_minutes_per_month": 9100000000},
    "billed_minutes_per_month": {"low": 127500000, "mid": 1023750000, "high": 2867530000, "unit": "job-minutes/month"},
    "usd_per_month": {"low": 765000, "mid": 9213750, "high": 45880474, "unit": "USD/month"},
    "usd_per_year": {"low": 9180000, "mid": 110565000, "high": 550565683, "unit": "USD/year"},
    "top_down_usd_per_month": 14235000,
    "top_down_method": "Actions minutes per week grew from 1.0B (2025) to 2.1B (early April 2026); 30% organic growth explains 1.3B; the other 0.8B a week (about 3.5B a month) billed at the mid share (0.455) and mid price (0.009 USD/min)",
    "headline_usd_per_month": {"from": 9000000, "to": 14000000},
    "headline_usd_per_year": {"from": 110000000, "to": 170000000}
  },
  "before_after_opus_4_5": {
    "before_period": "2025-09",
    "after_period": "2026-10",
    "agent_prs_per_month": {"before": 4000000, "after": 22500000},
    "actions_minutes_per_week": {"before": 1000000000, "after": 2100000000},
    "price_per_minute_mid": {"before": 0.012, "after": 0.009},
    "usd_per_month_mid": {"before": 2184000, "after": 9213750},
    "multiple": 4.2,
    "extra_usd_nov_2025_to_oct_2026_mid": 39000000
  },
  "github_price_per_minute": {
    "unit": "USD/min",
    "rows": [
      {"runner": "Linux 2 vCPU", "before_2026_01_01": 0.008, "github_now": 0.006, "sengi": 0.003, "sengi_partner_rate": 0.0018},
      {"runner": "Linux 4 vCPU", "before_2026_01_01": 0.016, "github_now": 0.012, "sengi": 0.006, "sengi_partner_rate": "ask"},
      {"runner": "Linux 8 vCPU", "before_2026_01_01": 0.032, "github_now": 0.022, "sengi": 0.012, "sengi_partner_rate": "ask"},
      {"runner": "Windows 2 vCPU", "before_2026_01_01": 0.016, "github_now": 0.010, "sengi": null, "sengi_partner_rate": null},
      {"runner": "macOS 3 or 4 core", "before_2026_01_01": null, "github_now": 0.062, "sengi": null, "sengi_partner_rate": null}
    ]
  },
  "one_repo_jacks_med_oncall": {
    "prs_opened_2026_05": 224,
    "prs_opened_2026_10_01_to_26": 2682,
    "prs_merged_2026_10_01_to_26": 2518,
    "median_job_minutes_per_merged_pr": 147.2,
    "job_minutes_2026_10_01_to_26": 370650,
    "usd_github_2_vcpu": 2224,
    "usd_sengi_2_vcpu": 1112,
    "usd_sengi_partner_rate": 667,
    "data": "https://sengi.run/data/ai-coding-agents-github-actions-bill.json"
  },
  "sources": {
    "octoverse_2025": "https://github.blog/news-insights/octoverse/octoverse-a-new-developer-joins-github-every-second-as-ai-leads-typescript-to-1/",
    "daigle_2026_04_03": "https://twitter.com/kdaigle/status/2040164759836778878",
    "daigle_quote_mirror": "https://simonwillison.net/2026/Apr/4/kyle-daigle/",
    "github_cto_2026_04_28": "https://github.blog/news-insights/company-news/an-update-on-github-availability/",
    "agent_prs_4m_17m": "https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3838634999417353",
    "amplifying_ai": "https://amplifying.ai/coding-agents/trends",
    "claude_code_share_of_commits": "https://gigazine.net/gsc_news/en/20260210-claude-code-github-commits-4-percent-20-percent",
    "prarena": "https://simonwillison.net/2025/Oct/1/prarena/",
    "runner_prices": "https://docs.github.com/en/billing/reference/actions-runner-pricing",
    "included_minutes": "https://docs.github.com/en/billing/concepts/product-billing/github-actions",
    "pricing_faq_2026": "https://github.com/resources/insights/2026-pricing-changes-for-github-actions",
    "old_prices": "https://www.warpbuild.com/blog/github-actions-price-change",
    "self_hosted_fee_postponed": "https://github.blog/changelog/2025-12-16-coming-soon-simpler-pricing-and-a-better-experience-for-github-actions/",
    "copilot_code_review_minutes": "https://github.blog/changelog/2026-04-27-github-copilot-code-review-will-start-consuming-github-actions-minutes-on-june-1-2026/",
    "microsoft_fy24_q4": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2024/earnings-fy-2024-q4",
    "microsoft_fy26_q3": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2026/earnings-fy-2026-q3",
    "opus_4_5": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-opus-4-5"
  }
}